Turkey in & out of NATO? An Instance of a Turbulent Alliance with Western Institutions (Part 1 of 3)

According to ELCANO, After the Second World War, the leaders of the Turkish Republic unequivocally anchored Turkey to the Western alliance of states and, among other reasons, justified their decision by linking compliance with democracy, the rule of law and basic freedoms with the country’s security in its immediate neighbourhood: The goal was supported by the US in an attempt to improve Turkey’s status as a potential balance to Soviet power in the region. While Turkey became part of the European Recovery Program (the Marshall Plan) and the Organisation for European Economic Co-operation (the predecessor of the OECD), the US also supported Turkey’s associate membership of the European Economic Community when it first applied in 1959. Thus, in the context of the day, US support for Turkey’s membership in NATO in 1952 –as one of its earliest members– was not in the least surprising: Despite the promising start to Turkey’s links to the Western alliance, its place in NATO was uneasy at certain periods in its history: The primary cause was Turkey’s relations with its NATO ally Greece and its dispute with the latter over Cyprus: President Johnson’s letter of 1964 marked perhaps the nadir of relations due to the Greek-Turkish conundrum: In his letter, the US President warned the Turkish Prime Minister against engaging in military operations in Cyprus and warned that NATO might not be able to protect Turkey in the event of the Soviet Union taking advantage of the conflict.1 Indeed, in 1974 Turkey entered in the north of the island and the US placed an arms embargo until 1978, inflicting ‘great harm to Turkey’s armed forces’. On the US side this was a low point and, since then, the troubled relations have continued with ups and downs: There have been also other reasons for tension between NATO and Turkey: When Yugoslavia was breaking up, for instance, Turkey demanded that NATO and the UN intervene more swiftly and forcefully against Serbia, and there was a clear difference of approach until NATO finally intervened in Bosnia-Herzegovina in August 1995. NATO-EU cooperation was a similar case that led to tension on several occasions. While the EU wants to use NATO assets on its missions, Turkey, as a non-EU country, is worried about the involvement of Cyprus and the possibility of it gaining access to NATO information: This was an issue, for instance, in the EU mission in Kosovo in 2007 to 2008, when Ankara blocked EU-NATO cooperation: There are many such ups and downs in the history of Turkey’s alliance with NATO: Despite the tensions, however, it is also important to explain that Turkish-NATO relations have not really been unduly affected by the various military coups in Turkey since it became a member.5 Such NATO and US acquiescence was the basis of many conspiracy theories underlying the recent decline in relations: That the 2016 coup attempt harmed Turkish-NATO relations shows that the alliance has entered a new scenario that had not been seen before: This paper will look at the main reasons behind the decline in relations since 2011, including the coup attempt, and discuss possible consequences it might have for the future: Declining relations since 2011: There has been a gradual decline in Turkish-NATO relations since 2011 and an even swifter deterioration since 2016. Although partly due to the absence of a new framework for Turkish-US relations,6 there are three interrelated reasons that have speeded up the decline and help explain the current situation: (1) the Arab Spring and the Syrian War; (2) the 2016 coup attempt; and (3) Turkey’s cooperation with Russia: The Arab uprisings and the Syrian war is also a factor: Turkey has had regional power aspirations since the end of the Cold War. With the rise to power of the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) in 2002 these aspirations in the Middle East have become even more visible: Turkey believed that it could use its co-existing Western and Muslim identities, as well as its geographical location, as an asset and be an ‘example’ in the Middle East: After 9/11 the US also supported such a vision of Turkey as a model Muslim democratic country, especially under AKP rule: These regional power aspirations were crushed by the Arab Spring: Turkey wanted to lead democratic change and supported groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt: